Tuley’s Takes – Week 14 College Football Best Bets and Predictions:
We can’t believe the college football regular season is winding down here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as it feels like August was yesterday. We have a lot to be thankful for this holiday season, but unfortunately, our CFB plays haven’t been one of things. Last week’s 2-3 ATS record was an improvement from recent weeks but still a losing effort. We won with Air Force +3.5 in a 22-19 upset at Nevada and ECU +3 in a 40-28 upset at North Texas (at least our winning dogs are truly live and pulling outright upsets and not just covering), but lost with Indiana +10 in a 31-15 loss at Ohio State, Wisconsin +1.5 in a 44-25 loss at Nebraska and Western Kentucky +1 in a 38-21 loss at Liberty.We’ll try to turn things around and gain some momentum into the conference championship games as well as the bowls and College Football Playoff with four (hopefully) live underdogs this holiday weekend. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Minnesota (+1) at Wisconsin
Friday, 12:00 p.m. ETAs stated above, Wisconsin let me down in their 44-25 loss at Nebraska last Saturday. I usually don’t like betting against a team that failed me because I’m afraid I might be unduly doing it out of spite and not objective in my handicapping. However, I can’t get over the feeling that the only reasons the Badgers are favored here is because they’re at home and trying to become bowl-eligible. Minnesota is already bowl-eligible, but I don’t take that as a knock but instead that the wrong team is favored. The Golden Gophers are also coming off a valiant effort in a 26-25 loss vs. No. 4 Penn State and is taking a step down in class here.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +1
Rutgers (+2) at Michigan State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETOn Saturday, we have almost the same exact handicap with Rutgers (6-5) being an underdog at Michigan State (5-6). Does the public really put that much stock into MSU trying to become bowl-eligible? There’s an old saying here in Vegas: “Just because a team is in a must-win situation doesn’t mean that it will win.” I also like the corollary to that theorem: “If a team in a must-win situation was good enough to ‘flip the switch’ to get a win when it wanted, it would have done it already and wouldn’t be in this spot.” Again, I feel the wrong team is favored and only because it’s on the road and the home team is trying to become bowl-eligible. In addition, just like Minnesota, Rutgers is also stepping down in class after nearly knocking off a ranked team in Illinois.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Rutgers +2
Jacksonville State (+2) at Western Kentucky
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ETIf home-field advantage is making a comeback, then I’m probably in for another long weekend again. I’m landing on a short road dog that I believe should be favored. Jacksonville State (8-3, 7-0 in Conference USA) has already wrapped up a spot in the CUSA championship game. I guess the oddsmakers have WKU in a must-win situation (and needs Liberty to lose to Sam Houston to earn a rematch with Jacksonville State in the title game), but I’ll take the short dog again. Western Kentucky isn’t even playing well heading into this matchup (so much for winning in must-win spots) with back-to-back losses vs. Louisiana Tech and, more importantly, Liberty, which would have eliminated the need to win a tiebreaker over the Flames if they had just taken care of business there just like Jacksonville State did in winning 31-21 at Liberty back on Oct. 30.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Jacksonville State +2
Oklahoma (+6) at LSU
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ETOklahoma (6-5, 2-5) is obviously having a down season and misses Lincoln Riley more with each passing year. LSU has had a better season overall, but the Tigers are coming off a 27-16 loss at unranked Florida to fall out of the Top 25 and down the pecking order of SEC teams trying to go to major bowls. In fact, LSU has lost three straight, and I’m not sure the Tigers should be favored over the Sooners, who just played their best game of the season in upsetting No. Alabama 24-3 in a dominating performance that didn’t look like a fluke. I’m also taking Oklahoma at +190 on the moneyline.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Oklahoma +6
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